But they will certainly convey the increasing costs of the

Posted On: May 6, 2013

How to understand Putin

moncler outlet online By Leon Aron, Special to CNN

Editor note:Leon Aronis resident scholar and director of Russian Studies at theAmerican Enterprise Institute. The views cheap moncler jackets outlet expressed are his own.

monlcer down jackets To understand what motivates Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Ukrainian crisis and how he will proceed,we have to recall two key things about his strategy and his tactics.

cheap moncler jackets First, Russian foreign policy whether under Brezhnev, Yeltsin, Putin or anyone after him is informed by moncler coats sale three imperatives: Russia as a nuclear superpower, Russia as the world’s great power, cheap moncler jackets and Russia as the central power in the post Soviet geopolitical space. And a power that is political, economic, cultural, diplomatic and most certainly military.

What differs from one Russian political regime to another is interpretation and moncler jackets canada implementation, that is, moncler chicago the policies that support these objectives. Putin’s have been far more assertive and at moncler jackets outlet online times riskier than those of his predecessors. The nuclear “superpowership” has been translated into a vehement opposition to missile defense in Europe. and the moncler coats West in general. And the centrality of Russia in the post Soviet spacehas been re interpretedas dominance and hegemony.

moncler sale outlet Ukraine’s European breakout caused by Putin’s first major political blunder in openly and heavy handedly betting on ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, and thus escalating the issue from corruption and thievery to Ukraine’s moncler outlet mall sovereignty is hugely important to Putin’s Russia. Why? moncler outlet online Because it has dealt a very heavy, perhaps fatal, blow to not one but two elements of the Russian geostrategic triad buy moncler jackets toronto asdefined by Putin: to the power pillar (the West has won in the Ukraine!), and to Russia hegemony in the post Soviet space.

cheap moncler outlet From Moscow’s point of view, moncler coats outlet the double whammy must be mitigated or better yet reversed before the consequences become irrevocable and the geopolitical map of Eurasia permanently redrawn. As a result, for as long as the eye can see, containment, de stabilization and, if possible, derailment of the Europe bound Ukraine will be by far the most important objective moncler outlet usa of Russian foreign (as well domestic) policy.

As to moncler coats for kids the moncler outlet location tactics, in his effectively 14 years in moncler outlet kids power, Putin has been very lucky both in his domestic and foreign endeavors, in part because of objective factors (when he took over as acting president in 1999, a barrel of crude averaged around $17 a barrel) and in large measure because his opponents, at moncler jackets men home and abroad, were politically or economically handicapped.

moncler outlet store As a result, Putin has trusted his luck and his smarts while counting moncler jackets kids on his opponents moncler jackets outlet weaknesses. This means he has operated in accordance with moncler coats for women Napoleon’s principle: On s’engage and puis on moncler jackets https://www.newmoncleroutlet.com voit,which I would translate as “First get into a fight, and then moncler outlets usa decides what to do. From the expression of concern for the safety of ethnic Russians in Ukraine (which proved ineffective), to thequestioning of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, to the introduction of forces in the Crimea, to his “request” to the Federation Council of the Russian parliament for the “use” of troops in Ukraine. In accordance with his tactical habits, Putin will likely stop now and assess the reaction. A full scale invasion and occupation of Crimea is therefore likely to be next unless the response from the “West” proves effective. Moncler Black Friday is not going to go to war over Ukraine. still has quite a few diplomatic and economic tools at its disposal, to be deployed moncler coats for men publicly and, most crucially, privately. and its allies also must keep in mind that most, moncler coats for cheap if not all, of these measures are aimed not only at cheap moncler jackets wholesale Putin but at theelites around him and at the Russian public at large. Dominant though he is, moncler jackets mens Putin is not Stalin or Brezhnev. Russia is not the Soviet Union, the Iron Curtain is gone the internet exists and public opinion matters.

The West’s steps are not difficult to discount moncler jackets divine. allies would be replaced by a joint statement from the heads of state of NATO and EU countries warning about the discount moncler outlet “consequences” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Such a statement should stress that Russia risks isolating itself from the world economically, politically, culturally with disastrous results for the peopleof the Russian Federation.

moncler outlet sale These “consequences” may have been spelled moncler jackets cheap out in President Obama’s private call to Putin moncler jackets toronto (with an understanding that what is private today may become public tomorrow). and the EU. In addition, Moscow behavior could trigger new export controls, which given its dependence on Western technology, particularly in the oil and gas sector as well as in the food industry, could Moncler Factory Outlet have a very negative impact on the Russian economy. peacemaking forces Official Moncler Outlet in Crimea to protect the political rights ofall Crimeans, and the reaffirmation of the pre existing “special status” of Crimea within Ukraine, as well as the continuation of the pre existing Russian sovereignty of the leased naval base in Sevastopol.

cheap moncler sale womens moncler jackets Given the size of the hole that the Ukrainian revolution has torn in the fabric of Russia’s geopolitics, these measures may not stop Russia from attempting to reverse the crisis. But they will certainly convey the increasing costs of the course in which the Kremlin seems to be embarking, and possibly provide a way cheap moncler out without losing face.

moncler mens jackets I think the Russian Federation forces stop in the Crimea and don invade Eastern Ukraine, Putin can claim to be securing his Black Sea Fleet. Russia has survived it post Cold War economic collapse and is rebuilding. The West has managed to moncler outlet ny put off our Day of Reckoning with easy credit and fiat money but you can raise debt ceilings forever. Sebastopol is the major warm water base of the Russian Navy. If Putin is patient I believe he moncler outlet woodbury will gain that treasure denied Russian foreign policy by the Anglo Americans since the Great moncler jacket online Game: Constantinople.

March 4, 2014 at 6:49 pm Reply

cheap moncler 1. What does the issue of role of non use of UN Peacekeepers, why have they not been deployed.

moncler outlet 3. Recently, moncler outlet Putin showed his cards by threatening to veto such actions above.

cheap moncler moncler outlet uk coats 4. moncler jackets for women Remember, if you destroy one person that could be your own head also, by discovery, by aid,

one makes a difference. Why don they resolve it in a nice game of chess or like computer

games. Or just do the right thing and come up with an economic aid package helped by

everyone. Put death somewhere else and defeat it in its place. (a noble global initiative,

moncler sale to take the initiative, ____ has simply not done it, wake up we should do something about it.)

April 26, 2014 at 3:02 am Reply

buy moncler jackets There is opposition to Putin but this moncler jacket outlet exists exclusively within the bigger cities predominantly among the ‘novie russkie’, middle classes and students who will most likely end up living in Europe or the US anywaybasically anyone with money who therefore stands to loose under Putin and his popularist party.


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