In an ugly moncler outlets uk form of stasis

Posted On: March 24, 2013

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With Islamic State in fatal decline and the edges moncler outlet usa of moncler outlet location Kurdistan afire, the Middle East is entering a new era, dominated by the Saudi Iranian power struggle. The United States, which did so much via its unnecessary invasion of Iraq and tragic handling of the post incursion period to nurture the growth of Islamic State, will be largely missing from the scene. Instead, the struggle will, as it did during Moncler sale the fight against the Sunni extremists of Islamic State, involve shifting Sunni and Shi allegiances.

Members of the Iraqi army and the Shi Popular Mobilization Forces clash with Islamic State militants in the battle to discount moncler jackets reclaim the Iraqi city of Tal Afar, August 26, 2017. REUTERS/Thaier Al Sudani.

For the moment, there seems to be an easing in the historic tensions between the two main and often warring branches of Islam. Religious differences are not the focus; this is a classic geopolitical power struggle for control of Iraq, Syria, and moncler outlet canada Kurdistan, and for expanding diplomatic and strategic reach throughout the region.

moncler outlet store Iran is lined up to be the big winner in Syria. Islamic State’s defeat will significantly lessen Sunni influence, and Tehran role as Syrian moncler coats cheap President Bashar al Assad’s protector will only increase now that it appears moncler coats for women Assad will remain in control of some portion of the country. Iran will have pieced together Official Moncler Outlet a land corridor to moncler coats outlet the Mediterranean. The Saudis will be left with little influence.

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moncler sale From moncler outlet uk new alliances to shifting Sunni Shi relationships, Reuters columnists examine how Islamic State losses could reshape the Middle East

moncler outlet The same goes for the United States. American forces have been largely relegated to playing traffic cop among various on again off again allies such as the moncler jackets canada Turks and Kurds, each with its own agenda in Syria. Any influence Washington thinks it still has is further Discount Moncler Coats diluted by the presence of the Russians, who are there to support Assad while maintaining a permanent presence in the heart of the Middle East. American efforts may wind up as little more than fumbling around to keep Israel and Jordan from overreacting to the increased Iranian influence on their moncler jackets borders.

moncler sale outlet In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, Riyadh appears to be pivoting towards warmer relations with moncler coats for kids the Shi government in Baghdad. That a Saudi airline is announcing the first return of direct service between the two countries moncler coats for cheap since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 is no coincidence, nor is it an isolated event.

buy moncler jackets The Saudis also appear ready to take advantage of a looming intra Shi power struggle in Baghdad among Prime Minister Haider al Abadi, former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, and Shi cleric Moqtada al Sadr. Sadr, the most religiously zealous of the group, has always been something of a nationalist and is wary of Iranian influence. It cheap moncler jackets wholesale is thus not surprising he made friendly trips under moncler jackets outlet online official invitation moncler outlet kids to Sunni Riyadh, and the United Arab Emirates, in moncler jackets men recent months.

Sadr is an interesting choice for the Saudis to use to gain influence in Baghdad. Real progress for Riyadh means untangling years of close Iranian cooperation in Iraq, to include limiting the power of the Iranian backed militias. Sadr has significant influence in that moncler coats for men respect, and can moncler jacket outlet use his popularity moncler outlet ny and credibility to sell Saudi cooperation to his followers who remember Saudi funding of al Qaeda in Iraq and Islamic State over the years. Enhancing Sadr’s Shi religious status can further moncler outlet mall Sunni Saudi goals. During his visit, the Saudis gifted Sadr with $10 million for and also astutely threw in some visas for this year Hajj pilgrimage for Sadr to distribute.

The Saudis otherwise have little to work with in Iraq compared womens moncler jackets to Iran. Tehran ties to officials in moncler jackets kids Baghdad are just a tiny part of a deep relationship forged in the bloody fight against the American occupiers and the ousting of Islamic State. Iranian money continues to support Iraq, and the Shi militias are moncler chicago still moncler jackets outlet mostly under Iranian influence. REUTERS/Erik De Castro

moncler outlet online Iran is also probably the moncler jackets on sale most stable Muslim nation in the buy moncler jackets toronto Middle East. It has existed more or less within its current borders for thousands of years, and is largely religiously, culturally, and linguistically moncler coats sale homogeneous (though keep an eye on the Kurdish minority.) moncler coats While governed in significant part by its clerics, the country has held a series of increasingly democratic elections. And unlike moncler outlet store the Saudi monarchs, Iran leaders do cheap moncler jackets outlet not rule in fear of an Islamic revolution. They already had one.

Power struggles create flashpoints, and the Saudi Iranian fight post Islamic State is no exception. The Saudi Iranian proxy war in Yemen has settled into a version of World War One style trench warfare, with neither side strong enough to win nor weak enough to lose. In an ugly moncler outlets uk form of stasis, the conflict seems likely to stay within its present borders.

cheap moncler The powder keg is Kurdistan. Though arguably a de facto state since 2003, after the Kurds voted formally voted for independence in a Sept. 25 referendum, Iran and the Iranian backed government in Baghdad were pressed to make clear they will not tolerate an actual Kurdish nation. With Islamic State moncler outlets usa nearly defeated and combat tested Shi militias ready for their next cheap moncler tasks, Tehran and Baghdad no longer need to keep the Kurds on their side. Fighting has already broken out around Kirkuk, an oil rich city in Iraqi Kurdistan, between forces supported by Baghdad/Tehran and Kurdish fighters leaving a gap for moncler outlet the Saudis to offer financial or covert support to the Iraqi Kurds.

monlcer down jackets Saudi involvement could morph an Iraqi civil war into a new proxy struggle right on Iran own western border, with the possible complication of further unrest inside Iran by its Kurdish minority.


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moncler mens jackets While it may seem odd to write about the changing Moncler Factory Outlet balance of power in the Middle East largely leaving out the United States, that may well describe America range of options post Islamic State.

cheap moncler outlet Washington influence in Baghdad is limited and relations moncler jackets cheap with Iran are in shambles under the Trump administration. It is highly unlikely America will join Iran to fight against Kurdish allies who helped defeat Islamic State. Nor are American troops likely to battle Iranian led militias in support of Kurdish independence that Washington says it doesn really support right now.

moncler outlet sale That leaves the United States sidelined, with few options other than perhaps supporting the Saudis from afar in whatever anti Iranian meddling they do in Iraq. A long fall from the heady days of 2003 when America was going to remake the Middle East. The victor after some 14 years of overlapping struggles? In the post Islamic State Middle East, look for Tehran to emerge dominant.